The US economy is definitely slowing down. Not super bad , but not good either.
Wednesdays GDP growth numbers were good. Q2 growth match an annualized growth rate of 3.0%. But Q1 number was -0.5%, so H1 is 1.2% - Reuters. That is not recession, but definitely not good (average for the last 10 years is around 2.5%). But I think we need to see a quarter or two more to understand the trend.
Thursdays inflation numbers for PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) showed increasing inflation - CBS. My take is that it is the tarifs starting kick in - first tarifs were effective some months ago and now the goods are reaching the consumers and obviously the businesses want to recoup the tarifs paid, so they raise prices.
Fridays jobs numbers were the worst since Covid-19 crisis - CNBC. My take is that it is not due to tarifs kicking in but due to uncertainty about tarifs - businesses are reluctant to hire until they know where tarifs are going to end up.